The NY Times Article
In a surprise twist, the mad dash of e-book sales – up 1,260 percent between 2008 and 2010 – finally slowed down in 2015. Or at least, that’s what NY Times recently claimed, in a controversial article.
According to the newspaper, e-book adopters are returning to print, or becoming hybrid readers, who juggle devices and paper. E-book sales fell by 10 percent in the first five months of 2015, it said, while digital books accounted last year for around 20 percent of the market, roughly the same as they did a few years ago.
Publishing, while not immune to technological upheaval, may weather digital technology better than other forms of media, like music and television, after all. With the recent end of Oyster, it looks like e-book subscription services, modeled on companies like Netflix and Pandora, will struggle to convert book lovers into digital binge readers. Meanwhile, sales of dedicated e-reading devices have dropped as consumers migrated to tablets and smartphones. And, according to some surveys, young readers who are digital natives still prefer reading on paper.
The surprising resilience of print has provided a lift to many booksellers. Independent bookstores, in particular, which were battered by the recession and competition from Amazon, are showing strong signs of resurgence. The American Booksellers Association counted 1,712 member stores in 2,227 locations in 2015, up from 1,410 in 1,660 locations five years ago.
“We’ve seen people coming back,” said a book buyer. “They were reading more on their Kindle and now they’re not, or they’re reading both ways.”
Higher e-book prices may also be driving readers back to paper
The NY Times suggested some possible explanations. As publishers renegotiated new terms with Amazon in the past year and demanded the ability to set their own e-book prices, many have started charging more. Paperback sales rose by 8.4 percent in the first five months of this year, the Association of American Publishers reported.
It is also possible that a growing number of people are still buying and reading e-books, just not from traditional publishers. The declining e-book sales reported by publishers do not account for the millions of readers who have migrated to cheap and plentiful self-published e-books, which often cost less than a dollar.
This is supported by the fact that at Amazon, digital book sales have maintained their upward trajectory.
A Caveat. A big one.
Almost immediately, the NY Times’ claim came under heavy criticism. Most pointed out that the article only includes data from The Association of American Publishers, which include the Big Five. These are primarily companies that publish both traditional and digital formats, and they’ve been aggressively raising digital prices on bestsellers.
Some examples:
- Lee Child’s “Make Me”: $14.99 ebook, $16.28 paperback.
- David Lagercrantz’s “The Girl in the Spider’s Web”: $13.99 ebook, $16.77 hardback.
- Elizabeth’s Gilbert’s “Big Magic”: $11.99 ebook, $13.72 hardcover.
- Jonathan Franzen’s “Purity”: $14.99 ebook, $16.80 hardback.
When you reduce the price incentive to go digital, some people will opt for a hardback or paperback. Remember that the digital-only generation – those growing up with tablets instead of a pile of textbooks – is still a small (but growing) percentage of the book-buying public. The rest of us read in both formats: price will be a key factor in our decision.
How large a sample?
The biggest problem in this story is the fact that the ebook numbers of the Association of American Publishers account for only 32% of all Kindle ebooks sold by Amazon. You can’t draw conclusions about the state of an industry while ignoring two-thirds of it!
As Author Earnings points out,
“When we first started analyzing Kindle sales in February 2014, traditionally-published authors were taking home nearly 60% of the ebook royalties earned in the largest bookstore in the world. Not anymore. Today, traditionally-published authors are barely earning 40% of all Kindle ebook royalties paid, while self-published indie authors and those published by Amazon’s imprints are taking home almost 60%. From an author-earnings perspective, in 18 short months, the U.S. ebook market has flipped upside down.”
If you look at all books sales, eBooks outnumbered physical books sales 53% to 47%. Most of the ebooks sales were inexpensive downloads-which has really decimated revenue from commissions on book sales-but that is another story.
While the article makes no mention of this, Indie Black booksellers, online and off, have been pretty hard-pressed for years.
The Author Earnings Findings
To see what happens when one adds the missing two thirds of the sample, we turn to the September 15 Author Earnings report.
The first report dramatically highlights the rapid growth of “Non-ISBN” Indie books:
From the September 15 Author Earnings report
Now, let’s examine the daily revenue of authors: Indie published have a massive 43% of that pie.
From the September 15 Author Earnings report
However, because of the higher prices commanded by trad-pubs, the Indies’ superior market share does not necessarily translate into high profits for individual authors:
From the September 15 Author Earnings report
The same picture emerges when one examines trends: Between February 2014 and September 2015, the market share of Indies and trad-pubs has swapped places. Also, notice the new kid in the block; Amazon itself (in green). One can only assume its market share will grow in the future.
From the September 15 Author Earnings report
However, due to the vast price difference between traditionally published titles and Indies, there is a huge gap between the two in actual earnings.
From the September 15 Author Earnings report
E-Books vs. Print Books: An Infographic
Teaching Degree provides a lighter side to the argument, by examining the relative strengths and weaknesses of ebooks and print books to conclude: they can coexist.
My take? Reading in any format is good, as people who have learned to read will do so in any medium available to them, from stones to tablets to paper.
Musiville, my second children’s book, will be published shortly. When it does, I will only leave a sample of Runaway Smile online. If you wanted to read it in its entirety for free, you only have a few days to do so!
I have an ereader for reading books. I can see how using a smart phone would be more convenient for reading on the go, but I almost never do that so for me the reader is more convenient. I can take it into the garden or onto the beach and still be able to read (plus the ereader will go on for days while continuous use in brightly lit conditions will run the batteries of my phone dry in less than an hour most of the time).
For travelling I actually prefer to write rather than read, and I have a lightweight tablet for that.
That said, I think the big five shot themselves in the foot with their price hike push. While the short term profit has gone up the number of sales has started to decline. The clear result is that the publisher are not earning any more money, only the profit margin has gone up, so I guess that will make their shareholders and CEOs happy.
I know that I haven’t bought any new book for months now, not even from series I have been following for years. I’ll wait till the ebook prices come down to reasonable levels (price hikes of between 200 to 300 percent all the way into hardcover ranges are entirely unreasonable as far as I am concerned). And I can’t see this trend ending well in any way or form for the big five publishers. Readers will get turned off from buying from them at these extortionate prices, and once gone they are unlikely to win back their customers. And unless they more than doubled the author earnings per title sold I can see the point approaching rapidly that authors, even established ones, can’t see any point in signing a deal with increasingly niche publishers with abusive business practices.
The only ones I can see laughing at all this are Amazon. They are poised to pick up the debris as the big publishers increasingly flounder themselves.
I expect at some point the big 5 will figure out that they’ve taken a wrong turn. There’s a reason why they got to be so big, after all 🙂
Thanks for the great comment, and welcome!
What a wonderful post! You get right to the heart of it. I am an early adopter. I wanted ebooks so badly I could taste it in the ’90s. I bought a Rocketbook in 2000, and soon after started reading on a Palm Pilot as well. I never bought DRM hobbled books for more than $3, as I didn’t like renting my content. The demise of the rocket’s library, and my beloved Fictionwise going Nook, just made me less willing to do so. So I read cheapies, library books, and what I was able to save from my previous purchases on my tablet and phone, but anything I want to keep and read again I buy in print. I love the convenience, I’ve broken my rule a few times for books I want to read on trips as I don’t have to carry them, but in general, I like the flexibility and permanence of treebooks.
Thank you so much – and welcome. It’s great to have a reader’s perspective 🙂
For me, both have a place. Ebooks for convenient, and novel reading. Writing books I like to have in print to highlight, markup and go back to references easier. And of course print books I buy when traditionally published because I can’t justify paying same or more for an ebook. Maybe if the Big 5 keep raising ebook prices, readers will continue to give Indie’s ebooks a try for a better price, so hike away trads! 🙂
Yay for expensive trad-pubs, then 😀
My sentiments! 🙂
I like reading in any form I can lay my hand on, though I have a tendency towards paper books.
About the stats, I’m never sure they are complete and not limited.
Same here.
As for the stats, I think they’re severely limited 🙂
Why bother with a skewed result?
Erm, it made the news? 🙂
Shame. I’d rather have good stats. *sigh*
I juggle both formats and if the price is close in comparison I always opt for the print version. Nothing can beat the smell of a new book, except maybe the smell of an old one! ~Elle
Ooh, true. I love that old book smell!
Reblogged this on Books and More.
NYT has an agenda, and it’s data is a little … ahem … skewed. 😀
its its its its … jeez, you’d think I’d have it branded in my brain by now! 🙂
Lol – no worries. Mercifully, we don’t need to edit our comments 😀
It would certainly appear so 🙂
If I may say, I think the reason why indi books are not taken into account on this kind of survays is that, at the moment, they are still too difficult to assert. My 10-year-old nephew could publish a story of his on Amazon and in a survay that would go into the same caudron as a professionally edited and publised indi novel.
That doesn’t make any sense, of course, and I think this is why, assetting the market, indi publictions are still out of the count.
When it will be possible distiguishing professionally-produced publications from amatourish ones, then we’ll probably have a more accurate view of the market.
Though, if I can be honest, I don’t think the overall picture will change a lot.
Professionally published indi books have a cost wich is far different (in certain cases I’d say hugely difference) from an amatourish book. And personally I think this will be the difference in the future: not trad-pubbed books and indi-pubbed books, but professionally published books and amatourish books.
I really think there will simply be two different markets, in both publication modus operandi and targets.
This said, I think the future reader will be just like the past reader: hybrid.
We tend to think to hybrid readers today as the ones who reas both ebooks and paper books. But what about readers who both read mainstream and genre books? What about readers who read both fiction and non-fiction? What about readers who both read expencive photo books and cheap romances sold in supermarkets?
These are also hybrid readers, because they belong to different markets with different goals and different sale and marketing apprach (if this sounds familiar 😉 ), and still it has never crossed my mind that one market would destroy the other. Readers simply move from one market to the other depending what their final goal is on every given occasion.
The publicashion market will find a balance one day, this is only natural. I don’t think that day is very close, but it will come. And I thinkit will incluse tra-pubbed books and indi books, paper books and digital books.
Thank you for the great, thought-provoking comment 🙂
Reblogged this on Smorgasbord – Variety is the spice of life and commented:
Fascinating article by Nicholas Rossis that every author should read including those who are signed to publishers who control the prices of their books. Considering that most author who are contracted rarely see more than 10% of the cover price in print or otherwise it is easy to see who takes the lion’s share. With Ebook overheads being a fraction of print copies it is not reasonable that there should be so little difference in price.
I find it hard to believe. Their source of info is so one sided. I’ve noticed the big hike in ebook prices by the big trad pubs. Its only going to harm their authors. Readers are well aware that there are practically no costs involved in producing an ebook, they’re not going to stand for it. Not when they have so much choice. They’ll only get away with it for their biggest authors who have a loyal following.
Agreed 🙂
Interesting and informative post, Nicholas. Thanks for the thoughtful and well-presented analysis. When it comes to buying books, I’ll choose print versions as long as the price isn’t too high; however, I’ve been reading lots of eBooks over the past two years because of the price differential and in support of my author friends. I do love my kindle, but if I really, really love an eBook, chances are I’ll purchase the paperback as well to add to my own shelves or give as a gift. Runaway Smile is an example . Loved the copy on your blog and ordered a paperback for my youngest grandson. Looking forward to your latest children’s book. p.s. Still reading Pearseus…almost finished.
Aw, you! You know just what to say 🙂
Thank you!!!
Reblogged this on Adventures and Musings of an Arch Druidess.
I’m a hybrid reader, although I still prefer to read paperbacks. When I’ve been on the computer most of the day, I’m heartily sick of staring at screens and prefer to snuggle down on the sofa in the evening (between Mister and the dog) to read a paperback. If I do read an eBook, it’s on my tablet.
I know what you mean. Tablets are terrible for reading. That’s why I’ve got one for checking emails etc, but I always use my Kindle Paperwhite for actual reading 🙂
Something for my December birthday. Must start nudging Mister, starting now!
Ha ha – go for it 😀
I read the same article and walked away with the idea that change will come slowly.
Lol – well said 🙂
Interesting. I’ve noticed that the traditionally published ebooks are soaring in price and to be honest, I haven’t purchased the books because of it. Not because I don’t feel the books are worth it, but because for that price I can buy a paper book or 4 indie ebooks and support my peers. The good thing about higher ebook prices is that eventually they will trickle down to us. We get to raise our prices and still be considered a great deal. I’m looking forward to the day when freebies are no longer necessary. 🙂
Sigh… Me too 🙂
Reblogged this on jemsbooks and commented:
Printed books vs ebooks, which do you prefer? Great article by Nicholas Rossis!
This is a great article. It really shows that ebooks and print books can live side by side. I read on my Nook when I travel and daily on my IPad on both apps for Nook and Kindle. I still have a few printed books to read too occasionally. But I do prefer to read on my devices.
I agree that the big publishers are trying to wrack up the money on ebooks by raising the ebook prices. I recently bought one for $12.99 and thought that was too much. Some of favorite writers are asking up to $14.99 now. I am not happy about that. I read more Indie authors’ books than traditional now. They are cheaper but I like to support my fellow indie authors.
Thanks for sharing this info! Go indies! Blessings & hugs!
As a hybrid author, I have to thank you for your support 🙂
Reblogged this on Leona's Blog of Shadows and commented:
Nice article with lots of graphics and stats
Very cool article Nicholas. I agree that the decline is actually traditionally published eBooks. I could be wrong here, but the way that I understand it is that they get these stats only from eBooks published using ISBN numbers – no ASIN numbers are tossed into the pot to tally up, and there are quite a lot of those doing really well. 🙂
You’re right; they do get their stats from trad-pub’d ebooks. Interesting how they feel they can just ignore the larger part of ebook publishers – Indies!
Very interesting, Nicholas. Will I ever give up physical books? Absolutely not. I love the feel of that book in my hands. My e-reader is wonderfully convenient, but as the cost of e-books seems to be rising, I am more inclined to buy a physical book for nearly the same price. At some of the prices I’ve seen lately for e-books, I now have to make a choice. In the past, if I bought a physical book, I would also buy the e-book at a low price so I could keep up with my reading no matter where I went
I agree. I think it’s particularly annoying having to buy the ebook once you’ve already paid for the paperback (that’s why I always give away my ebooks to anyone who’s already purchased the print version).
I’m leaning toward more hybrid readers appearing. Also, the big rush of the e-book industry might be over in terms of the readers being bought. You have to figure that most people will have one at some point, so the high rate of purchasing would slow down. I’ve heard that this has been a bad year for the publishing industry in general too. Nobody seems to know why sales on everything, especially the readers and e-books, have died down so much. As someone who has had horrible luck with paperbacks and kind of gave up there, it’s rather worrisome.
I’m with you, as far as paperbacks are concerned. It might be genre-specific, of course.
True. Also book size. Mine are actually too big for 6×9 paperbacks without going into obscene levels of pricing.
True. That’s always a problem with longer works.
Tends to be a killer for indies too. It’s really interesting how people will grade a book on page and/or word count too. Not so much the content, but the length.
I’m reminded of an apocryphal story about this professor at my uni, who supposedly lifted into the air a student’s freshly-delivered essay and let it bang on the table. “Thin,” the professor said, and asked the student to add to it.
All in perception?
Isn’t everything? 🙂
Reblogged this on Legends of Windemere.
All devices for reading ebooks are going to end up in a landfill someday. If a paper book ends up in a landfill, a scavenging human will still be able to pick it up and read it, while the ereader is useless without a battery or a charger (which requires the availability of electricity in the coming Dark Age). Of course, you might say, who will even be able to read in that time? Well, if nobody can read, humanity really is doomed! Heh heh
Lol – that’s a rather bleak outlook!
Well, you may or may not know I have my own view of future history. And it will be bleak for a while but supposedly humanity is able to pull itself out of it by the 28th century.
Yay 28th century! 😀
I like to share my books with friends – easier done with a hard-copy book.
I also dislike the power of the e-book publishers to revoke a book or the possibility it might be changed (for example when it comes to swearing or sexual content.)
And I love to see how far I am in a book with my bookmark wandering through the pages.
AND – I am a book-hoarder. At least with my REAL books I see how many I still have to read – that is WANT TO read … If I had an e-reader the unread might just be hidden among the 150 + other unread titles. A whole book is easier to spot.
But I see the upside of the e-reader when you travel a lot. Less weight, always a new book at hand … I am not a Luddite. I just prefer my analog version.
Hey, no one’s judging here. We’ve got books jumping out from every nook and cranny of this house 😀
For children, I much prefer print. I do all other reading with my Kindle. BTW, reserve me a copy of Musiville, please. Scarlet needs her own Nicholas Rossis book, personalized and autographed, please. Looking forward to the excerpt!
Aw, you! You always know what to say to make my day! 😀
Great post, very informative. I’ve just Tweeted and reblogged it! Oh and I’m following you now.
Yay! Thank you so much, and welcome 🙂
Reblogged this on Nikki McDonagh – author and photographer and commented:
This is very informative and a must read for anyone wondering whether to traditionally publish or self-publish.
Reblogged this on Chris The Story Reading Ape's Blog and commented:
Very interesting article by Nicholas 🙂
Reblogged this on cicampbellblog and commented:
Some very interesting analysis of publishing trends. Do read more than the headlines. Did the NY Times examine all the data when they published their article? Interesting….
Ok, I have an e-reader and I’ve read a mess of e-books, but I made a conscious decision this year to go back to hard copies. I never enjoyed the experience of e-reading. When I was out in public, I had to worry about losing or damaging it (or someone stealing it). No one cares if I drop my copy of The Martian on the ground, not me, and not the sketchy guy on the subway. I stare at a computer screen for a lot of my work day, and I don’t need to stare at one during my leisure time.
This is anecdotal, but may be significant: among the nerdy middle graders in my daughter’s social set, they all want hard copies of books. Part of that is the desire to be seen reading, so they can connect with other kids who are fans of the same authors/books, but I think there’s also a tactile experience to reading, turning actual pages, tossing a dog eared copy of some novel you love into your backpack, accumulating a bookshelf full of your favorite authors. E-readers come up short on all those counts.
That’s interesting! Fear of theft is definitely a thing; I’ve heard others mention it.
I’ve found it’s less of a threat if you have a Kindle, as opposed to a tablet. The same applies to eye tiredness.
This is such an amazing post. I really love your blog so much and in turn cannot stop reading all of your posts! Please don’t stop writing!
Lol – due to your enthusiasm, this was marked as spam (shame on you, Akismet!) One look at your site told me you’re not, actually, a spammer, so… followed – and thanks 🙂
Haha this made me laugh. No, I am definitely not a spammer, I have a legit blog with followers lol. I just really liked your post so I had to compliment you and your blog! Thanks so much for following me also I really appreciate it! (:
Well, the compliment is much appreciated. Your reviews look great, too 🙂
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it ! (:
I’d be interested to know how mainstream authors’ earnings compare to self-published authors. (No idea how anyone would calculate that.) We hear about mainstreamers on the mid-list earning less than national averages and self-publishers who sell one book a month, so in spite of market share and the rise and fall of ebooks, who is earning a living?
I don’t know what the policy is behind expensive ebooks. I know the publishing process is the same for both hard and digital formats, but the cost of manufacture and distribution of hard copies must make the physical book significantly more expensive than the ebook. Perhaps the big publishers are trying to make up for lost hardback sales.
But we should still be looking at the music industry to see how all this is going to pan out. Music sales are still in flux, the industry hasn’t settled down into a model that suits every one in it, and that’s after how long, 15 years? Publishing has a long way to go before anyone really knows what’s going on!
I don’t know for certain, but I imagine the creative aspect of a book (paying authors, editors, artists, marketers) costs a great deal more than the paper and ink used in manufacturing, so there may not be that much of a difference between producing an e-book and producing a hard copy. And they may have discovered that people who read e-books aren’t deterred by the higher price, so why not ask it? Not everyone is looking for a bargain read; some folks are looking for their favorite author’s newest book.
I’ve worked in the printing industry and I know the enormous set up costs of something as complex as a book. Add to that the physical distribution of hard copy around the world. Two elements you simply don’t have with ebooks, and the costs can only be recouped if the book sells in signiicant numbers.
I think you may be right in saying publishers charge what people are prepared to pay; their own analysis will tell them how high they can go before sales tail off.
Check out the Author Earning report – it has all sorts of data on how well Indies do compared to trad-pub’d.
I completely agree with you on the music industry still settling down, and what that means.
Check out the Author Earning report – it has all sorts of data on how well Indies do compared to trad-pub’d.
As for the music industry, I just saw this:
“From Business Insider:
Streaming is no longer the future of the music industry. It’s the present.
According to RIAA statistics compiled here by Statista, streaming services like Spotify and Apple Music generated $1.028 billion in sales for the U.S. music industry in the first half of 2014, up 23% from last year. That’s still behind digital downloads, but that portion of the industry is shrinking — down 4% from the first half of last year, to $1.268 million.
As far as physical formats like CDs go? That segment is continuing its long plunge, with revenues dropping 17% from the first half of last year, and is now in third place behind downloads and streams.”
I predict streaming books will eventually replace buying ebooks, with sales of physical books remaining static for a few more years to come. (The affection for ‘real books’ won’t last forever.)
And as I’ve said before, unlike musicians who can supplement their income with live performances, authors have no such alternative to replace the shortfall in shrinking royalties.
We can sell swag 🙂
Very interesting article. I guess this could be similar to the massive revival that vinyl music is currently undergoing with the recent re-introduction of the vinyl record charts.
I love a printed book, and cost isn’t really an issue as there are stacks of great books in my local library.
You know, that’s a great comparison!
You’re right; library access is one of the main hurdles Indies still face.
I agree. But libraries (I find) tend to be run by, how do I put this kindly… luddites, who are still living in 1983. They’ll catch up to indie authors soon enough. Around 2034, I reckon.
Lol – at the earliest 🙂
There are some ways around that, though. I should probably do a post on that 🙂
Our local library is using an ebook app that allows the reader access to traditional publishers as well as indie publishers. So maybe there is hope. Great article.
Huh. See? The times, they are a’ changing 🙂
Reblogged this on Barrow Blogs: and commented:
An interesting post, Nicholas. Thanks
Like Catherine, I feel that e-books should be substantially cheaper, or I would sooner have a print copy. As for gifts, cookery, or travel guide books, paper will win with me every time. I don’t use an e-reader, and actually read books (including Infinite Waters) on my smartphone, which is the most convenient storage medium, and can be carried in a shirt pocket.
However, a hard-copy book will never run out of battery!
Best wishes, Pete.
How interesting! I’ve read how phones are the next reading device (all the cool kids seem to do it), but you’re the first cool kid I know who actually uses one 🙂
‘Cool kid.’ That made me chuckle, Nicholas!
Me too. Don’t own an e-reader, don’t read books on my PC but have downloaded several onto my Windows phone using the Kindle App. When I’m sat with a spare few minutes to kill I can just pull out my phone and have a read in a way that just isn’t possible with a print book or an e-reader (this requires planning ahead and always having them on you, which just doesn’t work).
You crazy kids! 🙂
I’m a phone reader, too. I finally bought a kindle but it’s still too big to be really comfortable in my hands (I have a condition like rheumatoid arthritis). I’ll use it in the bathtub because it was less than a hundred dollars, and my phone – used – cost more than four hundred, but I prefer my phone.
My teenager says she prefers print books, but actually does most of her reading in Wattpad, I’ve noticed.
Lastly, these 14.99 trad-pub ebooks won’t drive me back to hardback, but they will make me wait until there’s another round of contract disputes between amazon and whoever, and the ebooks drop in price.
In the meantime, I’ll discover tons of great new indies!
All you crazy kids are making me feel old! Ah, the generations’ gap…
As a hybrid author, I salute your indie-supporting spirit 🙂
Some very interesting stats – personally I love both print and ebooks. If I’m travelling on a bus, I take a print book to read; otherwise I read ebooks on my pc. However, as an ebook fan, I do draw the line on expensive ebooks – anything over $10.00 is just too much to ask for a book you download; I’m all for authors turning a profit, but slapping a large price on an ebook when the equivalent print copy is around the same price is going beyond the pale. Recently on a New Zealand news show, they did an item on whether or not kids preferred to read ebooks or print. Most kids seemed to like print books better and going to the library was popular as well. Either way, whatever the format, books are a wonderful way to relax and pass the time 😀
I couldn’t agree more with everything you’ve said! Are you my long lost twin?
Lol, probably not – unless you have relatives that hail from Sweden, Norway, Scotland, England, Wales, Ireland and Germany – yup, my ancestors come from all the above – but as far as I know, no Greek 😀
Oh, my! That’s quite the ancestry 😀
Lol – I feel very lucky 😀