Following my analyses on the state of publishing, which I started with my posts, 2004-2014: How the E-book Changed Adult Fiction and What we Learn from The Publishers Association’s Statistics Yearbook 2014, this just came in, through the always excellent (and free) Passive Voice newsletter.
It is a post originally published on Ink, Bits & Pixels, which expresses doubt about the new numbers thrown around, claiming that ebooks have reached a plateau. Specifically, it deals with new estimate from Nielsen Pubtrack which said that 6% fewer ebooks were sold in the US in 2014.
The post reports that the Pubtrack estimate of 223 million ebooks sold in the US was completely erroneous. It cites two sources which say that the US ebook market is at least twice as large as Pubtrack thinks it is.
The first source is the pseudonymous Data Guy (the one behind the Author Earnings Report). His calculations suggested that around 513 million ebooks were sold in the US ebook market last year – twice as many as Pubtrack estimates.
The second source is more eponymous: the Association of American Publishers itself. They just released their annual estimates of the US book market and they say that 510 million ebooks were sold in the US last year (much closer to Data Guy’s estimate).
Yes, the AAP says that the US ebook market is over twice as large as Nielsen had claimed. It turns out that Nielsen widely over-estimated its ability to track the US ebook market.
Nielsen’s number is so far off because it thinks that the 30 publishers it tracks represent 85% of the market, when in reality they represent around half that number.
Which kinda proves my point: You know nothing, John Snow!
To find out more, you can read the whole article on Ink, Bits & Pixels.
Alternatively, you can read my award-winning children’s book, Runaway Smile, for free!